Nigeria’s Poverty Rate Expected to Rise by 2027, Says World Bank

The World Bank has forecast a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty in Nigeria over the next five years, up to 2027.

This projection is contained in the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, released at the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, DC.

The report highlights that despite some recent economic gains, particularly in the non-oil sector in the last quarter of 2024, structural issues related to resource dependence and national fragility will likely hinder progress in poverty reduction.

Nigeria, alongside other resource-rich and fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to experience a worsening poverty situation, unlike non-resource-rich countries, which are projected to see faster poverty reduction.

“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.

The report notes that Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the highest extreme poverty rate globally, with 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor living in the region in 2024. Half of the 560 million extreme poor in Sub-Saharan Africa are located in just four countries.

Resource-rich countries are expected to lag in poverty reduction due to slowing oil prices and weak fiscal structures. Conversely, non-resource-rich countries are benefiting from high agricultural commodity prices, which are fueling stronger growth despite fiscal pressures.

“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the report adds.